Climate envelope models for forecasting and prioritizing conservation needs for migratory waterfowl throughout North America

Waterfowl are an ecologically, environmentally, culturally, and economically important group of organisms.  Recognition of the tangible and intangible importance of this diverse group of birds by waterfowl enthusiasts gave rise to substantial international efforts and resulted in conservation of wetlands and associated upland habitats throughout North America.  However, with changing climates, discussions among scientists and waterfowl enthusiasts about the stability of traditional migrations and continental-level changes to conservation needs for waterfowl and other waterbirds are increasingly common. Anecdotal evidence suggested delayed migration of waterfowl to southern latitudes of North America during autumn and winter, thus we developed models that described duck migration patterns based on current weather conditions (i.e. climate envelope models; CEMs), described historic changes to weather known to influence duck migration, and forecasted future spatial distributions of ducks based on climate change scenarios. Our models indicated that specific temperature and snowfall thresholds resulted in decreased abundances of ducks at northern and mid-latitudes and presumably increases at southern latitudes (Schummer et al. 2010).  Application of CEMs suggested that ducks shifted distributions north in the 2000s relative to other decades, 1950s – 2000s.  Using our CEMs for waterfowl and climate change scenarios we predict that the arrival of ducks from Canada into the United States and on to more southern latitudes may become delayed by a month by the late 21st century (Notaro et al. 2014); this shift will impact the billion dollar migratory bird hunting and viewing industry, have substantial ecological consequences, and necessitate novel, North American-wide conservation efforts.